Ya Boi Picks

Ya Boi Picks – Q3 2020 Review

START: UFC 250 – Nunes vs Spencer (06/06/2020)‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎
END: UFC 253 – Adesanya vs Costa (09/26/2020)‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎

EVENTS WAGERED: 12‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎
UNITS WAGERED: 110.98‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎
RESULT: +64.00 UNITS 📈‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎
ROI: 57.7%‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎‏‏‎ ‎

We turn in an excellent quarter, during which we bet on 12 events, winning and losing on six events each. With a total profit of 64 units in the span of just three months, I’m somewhat doubtful the next quarter will result in anything close. Regardless, now that Q3 is coming to a close, it seems like a good time to review our action over the past couple months.

UFC 250 was Nunes vs Spencer, which had some highly memorable moments — Garbrdant’s buzzer beater KO of Ascunscao, Sean O’Malley’s walk-off KO, Aljo submitting Sandhagen, Alex Perez’s leg kicks… to name a few. From a betting standpoint, we had only a single throwaway bet of 0.6 units on Eddie Wineland at +345. Looking back, Ya Boi must have not found any value across the entirety of the card. 

Next was UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo, a.k.a. UFC Vegas 2.  We sort of punted on this card, a stinging -100% ROI, -10 unit day. Almost all of it was on Kevin Aguilar vs Charles Rosa, with Aguilar being the -170 favorite. Considering my worst performing category is slight favorites, and that I had put 2x my average bet size on him for no apparent reason other than misguided overconfidence, the smarter play may have been to fade and bet against Ya Boi.

Luckily, we completely outperformed our expectations on the next event, FN: Blaydes vs Volkov, turning in one of our best single-card results ever:

The oddsmakers have consistently given the public great incentive to bet against Roosevelt Roberts, who currently sits at 3-3 in the UFC. He has been the betting favorite going into all six of his bouts, and in this card, he was versing Ya Boi Jim Miller, who the bookmakers had as a +200~250 underdog. Miller being one to secure first round finishes fairly frequently, the value in a +900 RD1 finish was unmistakable, but even I was surprised at how swiftly Miller dispatched of RR. 

It’s time to review a card we performed horribly on. That would be UFC Vegas 5, Brunson vs Shahbazyan. What I should have done: bet larger (4~7 units) on Bobby Green (+130) vs Lando Vannata; bet smaller (1~4 units) on Joanna Calderwood (-150) vs Jennifer Maia. What I did: max bet (10 units ML + 5 units props) on Calderwood, tiny bet (1.36u) on Bobby Green. 

Bad Mofo JoJo unfortunately lost in round 1 and we lost 22 units that night. Ironically enough, she was the only max bet we had this entire quarter.

We immediately bounced back the next card though, which only makes you wonder “what if I hadn’t punted all those units just the previous week…”. For the first time ever it would seem, we actually got a slight favorite pick correct: Ya Boi Gavin Tucker helped us out in grand fashion, scoring a third round submission against highly touted prospect Justin Jaynes.

The next card was UFC 252, Cormier vs Miocic 2. We had no action on the card, and I feel I let my being a huge Suga Show fan get in the way of a play on Ya Boi Chito Marlon Vera, a fighter who in truth I’ve long considered one of my favorite fighters on the entire roster.

What happened on the next card was of truly historic proportions, however. Ya Boi somehow perfectly envisioned how the fight between Shana Dobson and Maria Agapova would play out; enough at least to make him put down 4 full units on Dobson at +1000, and of course when it cashed it made him feel like a god for some time. But, seriously: Did no one watch Agapova’s fight versus Tracy Cortez in DWTNCS? Anywho, I’m pretty sure I might have “peaked” on single-card results that night.

Didn’t do so hot on the next event. At the start of the week I was maximum-level confidence on Ji Yeon Kim, and was quite close to betting significantly more than 2.25 units. I sat on it for a bit, slowly regretting the play, and by fight night I was pretty much resigned to losing the bet.  And just like most of the clearer minded bettors had predicted, the fight ended with her opponent Alexa Grasso winning by decision.

Finally, we have last week’s event, UFC 253, headlined by the long awaited Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa. I was excited as you could be for the main event, and what a display it was. It was almost anti-climactic in that the bout turned out to be entirely too lopsided. From a betting perspective, we were just as excited about the co-main event between Jan Blachowicz and Domnick Reyes as well as the prelim bout between William Knight and Aleksa Camur, both of which we were on the correct side of, thankfully.

Moving forward, we’ve got some sizable underdogs we might want to play. Seung Woo Choi is +300~350 against Youssef Zalal in their bout scheduled for October 10, making this an easy pick. Alejandro Turbo Perez is currently +125 against Thomas Almeida, and while both fighters are coming off two-fight losing skids, Ya Boi won’t hesitate to take Turbo and plus odds.

Good luck to us all and let’s keep this upswing going! / @225underdog

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